It was eight weeks prior when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
