A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
